Floating Production Systems Market Report to 2017

As a key publication within the Global Perspectives Series, the Floating Production Systems Market Report To 2017 presents one of the key markets within the offshore industry today. The forecasts provided within this report provide a detailed global and regional view of this increasingly important sector of the offshore oil and gas industry. The sector is broken down by specific unit type including: FPSOs, FSO's, TLPs, Spars and Semi-Submersibles and detailed commentary and analysis is supplied about historic and forecast capital expenditure, and number of installations as well as looking at the sector breakdown by type, by water depth and by build.

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The Floating Production System (FPS) market is forecast to boom over the next five years, with FPS expenditure expected to accelerate, growing by 18% CAGR between 2013 and 2017 compared with 10% in the prior five year period; installations in 2017 are expected to be 95% higher than in 2008. This growth in both Capex and number of installations is largely driven by the increase in the number of developments to monetise gas in remote locations, as well as the increasing focus on optimising production from ultra-deepwater developments. Africa, Latin America and Australasia are expected to account for the most significant levels of growth in terms of Capex relating to FPS developments.

The deep and ultra-deepwater oil focussed developments in Africa and Latin America combined with the, generally, shallow water, gas focussed developments in Australasia are expected to account for almost 59% of total FPS Capex over the period of analysis. Towards the end of the forecast, Infield Systems expects to see an increasing number of developments in areas of the world with no prior FPS activity, such as East Africa and the Falklands. Capex growth from such areas is likely to accelerate towards the end of the forecast and, despite initially only accounting for a small share of the market, such areas are likely to become increasingly important after 2017.

In North America, it is the ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico that commands the lion's share of Capex, accounting for 69% of total North American FPS Capex. In the Middle East & Caspian Sea region, Capex is split between very shallow developments in Kazakhstan and the Persian Gulf and developments in the ultra-deep waters of the Eastern Mediterranean for Israel. Australasian Capex is almost entirely dominated by Australia, with relatively minor Capex outside of this country; whilst in Europe, the major producers of Norway and the UK are set to command 80% of Capex. Countries outside the two major producers in Europe, such as Ireland and Romania, are expected to account for a larger share of Capex towards the end of the forecast. The FPS market in Latin America remains dominated by Petrobras' expenditure in Brazil; whilst Africa sees Capex directed primarily towards West Africa – of which 71% is likely to be focussed on FPS developments in Angola and Nigeria. Asia has no overall dominant country with regards to FPS developments, but Malaysia and Indonesia account for the largest market share of Capex. 79% of the Capex for the region is directed to countries in Southeast Asia.

When looking at FPS developments by Water Depth, the market shows the increasing dominance of deepwater and ultra-deepwater Capex over the forecast period. Shallow water Capex is likely to peak in 2016, whereas ultra-deepwater Capex is expected to remain on an upward trajectory during the period to 2017. Ultra-deepwater Capex overtook the deepwater market in 2010 and is not set to be eclipsed by it at any point during the forecast. Despite shallow water Capex starting to decline post 2016, it is still expected to represent the largest share of the FPS market, driven by developments globally, but focussed on Asia and Australasia where the waters are not only shallow, but generally located a significant distance from shore. The ultra-deepwater market is driven by Latin America and North America, whilst the deepwater market is driven by Africa and Latin America.

Driven by the rapidly developing countries of Latin America and Asia, the world is set to see energy demand grow significantly over the forecast. In order to meet this demand, operators must continue their search for reserves in harsher, more complex and increasingly remote locations. It is this requirement for increased energy production that is driving the move towards far offshore reserves in Australia and Brazil, towards the high sulphur and high pressure and temperature reserves of the North Caspian fields and that has started the gas rush off East Africa, all of which are fuelling increasing activity in the FPS market. Asia is expected to see the most platforms installed, but these are mainly targeting the relatively small fields that are left in the South China Sea. Brazil is expected to deploy a large number of expensive FPSOs for the pre-salt fields, such as Lula and Iara, which are found at great distances from shore. Australasia, meanwhile, is set to see the installation of platforms in Australia's shallow waters that are a long distance from shore, for example, Ichthys, Prelude and Petrel/Tern.

Report Contents

• Executive Summary Presents an overview of the floating platform market across the globe today, highlighting the capital expenditure by region over the 2008-2017 period, whilst also presenting the key trends of this year's report, including deepwater growth and the increasing activity of Independent and National Oil Companies. Within this introductory section, global FPS capital expenditure by platform type and water depth is highlighted.


• Macro Overview Provides an overview of: current economic conditions in both developed and emerging markets, oil price trends and field sanction points, offshore production and reserves, as well as key industry trends, including the impact of unconventionals and the growth of LNG on the global market.


• Global Overview Provides an overview of the key trends and dynamics in the global FPS market; looking at the current prevailing trends, including the increase in deepwater development and the nascent FLNG market. The key operators and manufacturers active within the FPS market going forwards to 2017 are examined in greater detail. A detailed sector analysis and forecast is also provided, which presents a breakdown of the global FPS market in terms of FPSOs, FSOs, Spars, TLPs and Semi-submersibles. For each of these segments of the FPS market a detailed analysis of capital expenditure by region and water depth is also presented.


• Regional Analysis and Forecast In this section of the report a comprehensive analysis of the key macroeconomic and industry-specific trends affecting the global and regional FPS market is presented. Figures are provided for each of the seven key regions: Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East & Caspian and North America, and include: FPS capital expenditure and expected units installed; whilst a further breakdown by country, type (FPSO, FSO, TLP, Spars, Semi-submersibles and 'Other Floaters'), water depth and whether the platform is a new build or conversion over the 2008-2017 period is also analysed. An analysis of operators active in each region and their expected capital expenditure, installations and key projects is also supplied. Maps of current and forecast FPSs within each region are included.


• Appendices and Notes Includes information on FPS definitions, historical FPS development as well as details of acronyms and abbreviations and a list of which countries are included within each region.

Why You Should Buy This Report

• The report contains data developed by Infield Systems' market modelling process, OFFPEX, which is based on a unique "bottom up approach" to forecasting. OFFPEX's component by component and project by project forecasting process is robust and has a proven track record.


• The report provides an independent and comprehensive analysis of the drivers and challenges affecting development strategies, exploration activity and project timelines. This is supported by the inclusion of a detailed analysis of operator capital expenditure within the floating platform market over the 2008-2017 timeframe.


• The FPS market is one of the key markets of the offshore industry today and, as one of the most capital intensive development areas, is acutely affected by wider industry changes and oil price fluctuations. This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the future of the floating production market over the 2013-2017 period, whilst also highlighting where Infield Systems expects to see growth in floating production developments over the longer term.